Speculation is intensifying that President Trump may move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. While the White House insists that “no final decisions have been made,” media reports suggest an executive order could be imminent—potentially marking one of the most significant shifts in federal cannabis policy in decades.

For decades, marijuana has been classified as a Schedule I substance—alongside heroin and LSD—restricting research, complicating banking, and barring standard tax deductions for state-licensed businesses under IRS code 280E. Moving it to Schedule III would formally acknowledge its medical value and lower abuse potential, potentially unlocking research opportunities, tax relief, and more legitimacy for businesses navigating a complex legal landscape.

Industry leaders are already weighing the potential impact. Jim Belushi, whose Oregon-based Belushi’s Farm has grown from 48 plants in 2015 to a 93-acre sanctuary along the Rogue River, celebrated the news with a simple “ABOUT TIME!!!” For Belushi, the plant has long been more than a business: it’s a mission. Having lost his brother to an overdose, he champions the plant as a tool for harm reduction, wellness, and creative storytelling through platforms like Growing Belushi on Discovery Channel and Max.

Tamara Anderson, founder of Culinary & Cannabis, offered a more measured perspective. While she sees the need for rescheduling, she warns it must be done thoughtfully. “One minute the administration is recalling hemp products, the next they’re floating a reschedule. Who are they listening to? It’s clearly not the operators, patients, or communities who live this every day,” Anderson said. Culinary & Cannabis focuses on immersive, educational events that combine wellness, self-care, and sophisticated consumer experiences, helping both new and seasoned users navigate the space responsibly.

Jeffrey Miller, CEO of HoneyProjects, highlighted the uncertainty that could accompany any federal policy shift. “Any loosening of federal cannabis policy deserves acknowledgment, but a move to Schedule III introduces real uncertainty for small businesses in state-regulated markets. Ending the deeply unfair 280E era would be a welcome change, but we’ll be vigilant about the unintended consequences this shift could create if and when it becomes reality,” Miller said. HoneyProjects is known for award-winning dispensaries and innovative product lines, prioritizing patient access, restorative justice, and small-batch excellence.

Vince Ning, Co-CEO and Co-Founder of Nabis—the leading wholesale and distribution platform in the U.S.—offered both an optimistic and cautious view on the potential change. On the positive side, he said, “Rescheduling cannabis is the industry’s most significant drug policy update in decades, and it’s the beginning of a broader federal policy journey towards full legalization. Rescheduling will help accelerate research, reduce stigma, attract new investment, and ease some of the tax burdens that have held the industry back. The next transformation will happen when interstate commerce barriers between states are removed, creating a national infrastructure that can innovate, scale, and provide consumers with safe access more effectively and efficiently. This is a watershed moment.”

Yet Ning also stressed that even without a federal reclassification, progress continues. “While it is disappointing that cannabis remains a Schedule I substance, this decision will not slow the industry’s progress. At Nabis, we believe in leading by example, regardless of the pace of policy change. This moment highlights the urgent need to keep investing in resilient, adaptable, and forward-thinking infrastructure while advocating for regulations that expand access. This isn’t a moment of despair; it’s a call to action for the industry to continue to innovate, collaborate intentionally, and pursue meaningful policy change.”

What Rescheduling Could Mean

If the change happens, the potential impacts are broad. Federal recognition of cannabis’s medical value could make research easier, as universities and labs gain more freedom to study its therapeutic applications—from pain management to mental health. Businesses could access tax deductions previously blocked under 280E and enjoy improved banking options, reducing reliance on cash-only operations.

States might also feel empowered to modernize their policies, with lawmakers citing federal classification as a reason for hesitation. Patients and consumers could benefit from safer products, clearer labeling, and expanded treatment options. At the same time, regulatory challenges would remain: rescheduling does not equal legalization, and operators would need to navigate evolving federal, state, and local rules carefully.

The Other Side: Why Some Are Cautious

Not everyone sees rescheduling as an unqualified win. Critics warn that shifting marijuana to Schedule III could introduce confusion, as the public might assume the plant is fully legal at the federal level. Larger operators could disproportionately benefit, leaving smaller businesses to adjust to complex new regulations.

Kevin Sabet, president of the prohibitionist group Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM), has voiced concern that rescheduling could normalize use for young people while favoring corporate interests over patients. Even with Schedule III classification, some federal restrictions would remain, and the political landscape could shift with future administrations, creating uncertainty for operators, investors, and patients alike.

As the industry waits for official word, reactions reflect both optimism and caution. For many, rescheduling represents overdue recognition of marijuana’s medical and social value. For others, it underscores the complexity of federal reform and the need for careful implementation. Either way, the outcome could reshape the landscape for businesses, patients, and policymakers—and the stakes have never been higher.