U.S. Green Economy to Hit $123.6 Billion in 2025 Amid Policy Stalemates
The numbers are staggering, even if the system isn’t keeping up. According to the latest MJBiz Factbook update, regulated plant-based sales in the U.S. are projected to inject a massive $123.6 billion into the national economy in 2025—a 9% jump from the previous year.
That figure represents more than just flower sold over counters. It accounts for the ripple effect this industry generates: from agricultural operations to manufacturing, retail, real estate, media, and an entire ecosystem of ancillary businesses like packaging, compliance, legal, logistics, and accounting.
And yet, despite this economic power, the path forward remains politically uncertain.
Green Shoots in Rocky Soil
While some legacy markets in the West continue to struggle—thanks to overtaxation, illicit competition, and policy gridlock—emerging states like New York and Ohio are poised to bring fresh momentum. Their markets are still in early stages but hold immense potential for job creation, community reinvestment, and cultural impact.
Still, the industry’s hopes for a major federal breakthrough in 2024—whether through rescheduling or sweeping reform—were left on read.
In fact, 2025 is already shaping up to be another year of holding patterns and missed opportunities. Congress has yet to pass meaningful legislation, and with rescheduling stalled and Florida’s adult-use push defeated at the polls (despite $150 million in campaign spending), many operators are pivoting their strategies inward.
“We’re seeing an industry that’s learning to survive without expecting help,” notes a CEO from a major multi-state operator. “That’s both inspiring and exhausting.”
The $2.50 Ripple Effect
What makes the $123.6 billion estimate so compelling isn’t just the direct sales (forecasted at $35.3 billion for adult-use and medical products). It’s the $2.50 impact multiplier MJBiz uses to track how every dollar spent at a dispensary circulates through the wider economy—supporting everything from transportation and dining to healthcare, housing, and education.
From local taxes to job creation, the economic footprint of plant-based businesses is undeniable. States continue to reap hundreds of millions in revenue for public schools, infrastructure, and health programs. Real estate booms in previously overlooked neighborhoods, thanks to cultivation, manufacturing, and retail operations moving in.
And yet, in many ways, the industry is still treated like an outsider.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Part of the current stagnation stems from regulatory whiplash. With little federal guidance, states are left to create wildly inconsistent rules, making it difficult for brands to scale or consumers to navigate the system. Layer on price pressures, supply chain volatility, and inflation—and you’ve got an industry operating in survival mode.
Add to that the looming threat of a potential recession and new tariff anxieties under the Trump administration’s economic agenda, and the green boom could start looking a little brittle.
Still, insiders remain hopeful.
“Twenty-four states now offer legal adult use,” notes one policy expert. “That’s half the country. The momentum is there—we just need lawmakers to catch up to where the public already is.”
What's Next?
MJBiz projects the industry could contribute over $200 billion to the U.S. economy by 2030. But to get there, it will need clarity—on taxes, banking, rescheduling, and fair access for entrepreneurs in marginalized communities.
Despite the challenges, this sector continues to grow faster than most others in the country. It’s feeding families, funding public services, and transforming the conversation around wellness and business.
The question isn’t whether this industry is real. It’s whether the systems around it are ready to treat it that way.
For more stories on plant-based business, social equity, and national reform, follow @honeysucklemagazine and stay tuned for updates from the front lines of the green economy.
